Fall Market

With the construction market currently showing some signs of improvement, many are left wondering what the fall and winter seasons may hold for us home builders. Historically we start to see a seasonal slow down as winter approaches and showings start to dwindle as folks start to board up for winter. I wouldn't expect this year be any different.

There are some signs of optimism. Signs there may be a light at the end of the tunnel, albeit still a ways down the tracks. Interest rates remain at historical lows, sales numbers are starting to rise, oil remains in check and material and labor cost continue to remain low. However, there is still some fear and uncertainty that remains. I estimate that it may take the remainder of this year and the first few months of 2010 before we begin to completely remove ourselves from this slow environment. There are still bad loans that need to show themselves and be taken care of. There are still plenty of folks looking for jobs, looking for security. There is still inventory that needs to be weeded out.

These are not bad things. Unfortunately, these are just cycles in the market that must come to pass. We have made it through over 18 months of this recession. Many believe this recession began in December of 2007. I feel comfortable in saying the worst is behind us. The next few months should continue to show signs of improvement. Unemployment should begin to level out and inventories will begin to shrink. I am encouraged and believe 2010 will be a strong year. We should see prices stabilize and begin to rise.